进出口点评报告：外部环境趋紧，外贸增速下行

Export Performance - In September 2024, China's total export value reached $303.71 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, a decrease of 6.3 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The trade surplus for September 2024 was $81.71 billion, down from $91.02 billion in the previous period[2] - Exports to major economies showed varied performance: to the US at 2.2%, EU at 1.3%, Japan at -7.1%, and ASEAN at 5.5%[5] Import Trends - China's total import value in September 2024 was $222.0 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 0.3%, down by 0.2 percentage points from August[6] - The manufacturing PMI for September was 49.8, indicating a stable but below-threshold performance, with internal demand needing further release[6] - Imports from the US, EU, Japan, and ASEAN showed growth rates of 6.7%, -3.5%, -7.1%, and 4.2% respectively, with significant declines from the US and Japan[6] Economic Outlook - The global economic recovery in 2024 is expected to stabilize export growth, supported by easing inflation and improved external demand[8] - Domestic policies aimed at stabilizing the economy are anticipated to gradually improve import growth, although the real estate market remains a concern[8]