不锈钢日报-美未来降息幅度或不及预期，SS随有色回落

Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts may be less than expected, as indicated by Governor Christopher Waller[6] - From October 7 to October 13, the total signed area of new residential properties in 10 key cities was 2.0345 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.5%[6] - In the same period, the total signed area of second-hand homes in these cities was 1.7816 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 9%[6] Steel Market Analysis - On October 15, Hebei steel mills raised the procurement price of coking coal by 50-55 CNY/ton, effective immediately[6] - The trading volume of SS2412 on October 15 was 123,000 lots, a decrease of 26,738 lots, while the open interest increased by 2,911 lots[6] - The production cost of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel is approximately 13,800 CNY/ton, with upstream nickel-iron producers facing losses[6] Supply and Demand Insights - The crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills in September was 3.2888 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.09%[6] - The expected output for October is 3.244 million tons, indicating a sustained high production state[6] - The current inventory levels remain relatively high, with warehouse receipts increasing despite good transaction volumes[6] Investment Strategy - The macroeconomic disturbances are causing increased volatility in the market, suggesting a strategy of selling high in the physical market while participating in speculative trading[6] - The core logic indicates that macroeconomic factors currently outweigh the fundamentals, and the effects of policies will require time to validate[6]