通往2025：全球消费者展望报告：从谨慎型消费到目的性消费

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but it highlights key trends and consumer behaviors that suggest cautious optimism for certain sectors [1][3][6] Core Report Insights - The global consumer outlook is shifting from cautious to intentional consumption, with consumers becoming more resilient and focused on purposeful spending [1][6] - Inflation has slowed, with global CPG inflation growth at 1.7% YoY, but consumers are still spending 17% more for less volume compared to 2022 [3][25] - Discount CPG price tiers have captured over $6 billion in incremental sales share growth globally, indicating a shift towards value-driven consumption [3][104] State of Consumers - 32% of global consumers feel worse off financially compared to a year ago, down 2% from January 2024, showing slight improvement in financial sentiment [7][8] - Rising food prices remain the top concern for consumers, with climate change rising to the 4th spot among consumer worries [11][12] - Consumers are determined to remain resilient, with 30% of global consumers saying they are in a better financial position than a year ago [6][7] Consumption Drivers - Global FMCG value sales growth is at +4.9%, while volume growth is only +0.8%, indicating consumers are still paying more for less [26][27] - Home Care, Confectionery & Snacks, and Pet Food are among the most highly inflated CPG categories, with Home Care seeing a 7.6% price increase [28][29] - Beverages and Health & Beauty categories are seeing positive volume growth, with Beverages up 2.0% and Health & Beauty up 2.3% [30] Financial Polarization - 27% of consumers are either unimpacted financially or thriving in 2024, up from 21% in 2023, showing a shift towards financial stability [47][50] - 64% of Rebounders (those who have recovered from financial setbacks) are actively seeking additional income streams beyond their primary job [56][57] - Spending intentions show a shift towards in-home entertainment and education, with 55% of consumers planning to spend more on in-home experiences [59][62] Redefining "Discount" - Consumers are embracing a hybrid view of "discount," with 67% likely to try a new brand due to lower prices and 48% willing to switch to cheaper medicinal alternatives of equal quality [89][91] - Discount CPG price tiers have seen $6.11 billion in incremental sales share growth, while premium tiers have ceded $4.59 billion [104][105] - Private label products are growing rapidly, with 40% of consumers willing to switch to a private label product even if it costs more [118][119] Trends to Watch - GLP-1 medications are driving significant lifestyle shifts, with 31% of global consumers likely to use such drugs for weight loss, potentially boosting U.S. GDP by up to 1% [125][128] - Social commerce is growing rapidly, with TikTok (Douyin) in China seeing a 54.8% YoY sales growth, particularly in personal care, paper products, and pet care [133][139] - AI adoption is met with consumer skepticism, with 56% of global consumers avoiding sharing personal details due to data privacy concerns with AI technologies [147][149] Strategic Recommendations - Companies should focus on maximizing penetration and targeting high-value opportunities, as 52% of a typical brand's shoppers do not buy the same brand again the next year [41][42] - Retailers and manufacturers should align promotional strategies with consumer preferences for bulk purchases and lower cost per use, as 65% of consumers prefer larger pack sizes [94][96] - To capitalize on the growing private label trend, companies should innovate to meet consumer expectations for quality and value, as private labels now account for 22% of global CPG sales [120][121]