9月通胀数据点评：价格拐点未现

Group 1: CPI Analysis - China's CPI in September increased by 0.4%, lower than the expected 0.7% and previous value of 0.6%[3] - The CPI's year-on-year growth rate fell by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, primarily due to a high base effect from last year[6] - Food prices contributed approximately 0.16 percentage points to the CPI's month-on-month increase, down from 0.60 percentage points in the previous month[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI in September decreased by 2.8%, a decline of 1.0 percentage points compared to the previous value, and below market expectations[18] - The PPI's month-on-month decline was 0.6%, a slight improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.7%[18] - The high base effect and current supply-demand dynamics are significant factors contributing to the PPI's year-on-year decline[18] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The divergence between food and non-food prices has narrowed, with non-food prices showing a slight recovery in their negative impact on CPI[6] - Domestic demand remains weak, limiting the upward pressure on prices, which is a critical factor affecting inflation trends[24] - Recent policy measures aimed at stabilizing growth may provide some support for economic recovery, but the effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen[24]