农林牧渔周报（第41期）：4季度猪粮价格有望上涨，建议高配种养殖板块

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery industry [2]. Core Insights - The report suggests that pig prices and high profitability in the breeding industry are expected to continue into the fourth quarter, with grain prices at historical lows likely to rebound [13]. - The report recommends an overweight allocation to the agriculture sector due to the current low valuations of individual stocks [13]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural index fell by 7.59%, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 3.55% [16]. - The report notes that all six secondary industry indices experienced varying degrees of adjustment, with the agricultural product processing and planting sectors showing smaller declines [16]. Livestock Industry 1. Pork: - The national pig price was 17.97 yuan/kg, up by 0.24 yuan week-on-week, with a significant year-on-year increase [13]. - The average weight of pigs slaughtered was 90.8 kg, with a slight increase [13]. - The report anticipates a rise in pig prices due to increased demand from upcoming holidays and a slight increase in supply [13]. - The number of breeding sows was reported at 40.36 million, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [13]. 2. Poultry: - The average price of chicken chicks was 4.4 yuan/chick, up by 0.55 yuan, while the price of white feather broiler chickens was 3.66 yuan/kg, up by 0.01 yuan [4]. - The report highlights a loss of 2.37 yuan per chicken in the breeding sector, although integrated enterprises are expected to turn profitable [4][14]. - The report suggests that the industry may accelerate capacity reduction, leading to a potential rebound in chick prices [4]. 3. Yellow Chicken: - The price of yellow chicken was reported at 13.16 yuan/kg, with a slight month-on-month decrease [5]. - The report indicates that supply is tight, and prices may rise as demand increases during the holiday season [5]. 4. Animal Health: - The animal health industry is currently at a low point, but demand for health products is expected to recover slowly as pig prices rise [6]. - The report emphasizes the potential growth of companies with new products, particularly focusing on leading firms like Ruipu Biological and KQ Bio [6]. Planting Industry 1. Seed Industry: - The report notes an improving environment for the seed industry, with genetically modified corn and soybeans entering large-scale planting phases [7]. - It recommends investing in leading seed companies such as Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [7]. 2. Grain Prices: - Recent grain prices have stabilized, with corn at 2272 yuan/ton and wheat at 2450 yuan/ton, both showing slight increases [8]. - The report anticipates a potential rebound in grain prices due to policy support and global trade disruptions [8]. Industry Data - The report provides various data points, including: - National pig price at 17.97 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase [9]. - Average chicken chick price at 4.4 yuan/chick, with a weekly increase [9]. - Average corn purchase price at 2272 yuan/ton, with a slight weekly increase [9].