CTG DUTY-FREE(SH:601888) Guolian Securities·2024-10-16 10:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 43.02 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 24.7% to 3.92 billion yuan [10] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 11.76 billion yuan, down 21.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 640 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 52.4% [10] - Sales in the Hainan market are under pressure, with declines in passenger throughput, shopping conversion rates, and average spending per customer [10] - The duty-free shopping amount in Hainan for July-August 2024 was 3.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.3% year-on-year, with the number of shoppers down 20.7% [10] - The company expects revenue for 2024-2026 to be 58.19 billion yuan, 64.93 billion yuan, and 71.87 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 5.05 billion yuan, 5.99 billion yuan, and 6.83 billion yuan [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 43.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.92 billion yuan, down 24.7% [10] - Q3 2024 results showed a revenue of 11.76 billion yuan, down 21.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 640 million yuan, down 52.4% [10] Market Analysis - The Hainan duty-free market is experiencing significant sales pressure, with a decline in key metrics such as passenger throughput and average spending [10] - The average shopping amount during the National Day holiday in 2024 was 110 million yuan per day, a decrease of 32.5% year-on-year [10] Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 58.19 billion yuan, 64.93 billion yuan, and 71.87 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of 5.05 billion yuan, 5.99 billion yuan, and 6.83 billion yuan [10]