大众品2024Q3前瞻：需求延续分化，期待修复弹性

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the food and beverage industry [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continued weak recovery in the restaurant sector, with household demand showing resilience and differentiation between high-tier and low-tier cities. High-tier cities face some pressure, while low-tier cities demonstrate strong resilience. Recent consumption stimulus policies are expected to improve demand elasticity in the restaurant sector [10][12]. - The report anticipates a gradual stabilization of demand in high-tier cities due to lower loan rates and improved consumer expectations, while low-tier cities are expected to maintain robust consumption demand [10][25]. - The cost advantages for consumer goods companies are expected to further release in Q3 2024, as most raw material prices continue to decline, alleviating cost pressures for companies [27]. Summary by Sections 1. Demand Trends - Restaurant demand remains weak, with compound growth rates for restaurant revenues in July and August 2024 at 3.63% and 2.25% compared to 2019, respectively [10][16]. - Household demand shows differentiation, with high-tier cities under pressure and low-tier cities exhibiting strong resilience. Rural retail sales growth rates in July and August were 4.6% and 3.9% year-on-year, respectively [21][23]. 2. Performance of Consumer Goods - The performance of consumer goods companies is expected to show further differentiation in Q3 2024. The restaurant supply chain is anticipated to recover with the implementation of stimulus policies, particularly in the condiment and frozen food sectors [11][12]. - The dairy industry faces ongoing pressure, but demand is expected to recover with the resurgence of gifting scenarios and stabilization of raw milk prices [11][12]. - The snack food sector is expected to benefit from new channels and product categories, with companies like Salted Fish Shop continuing to see growth [11][12]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality consumer goods leaders that are likely to benefit from improving demand and cost advantages. Recommended stocks include Hai Tian Flavoring and Food, Tian Wei Food, and Yihai International in the restaurant supply chain, as well as Yili and Mengniu in the dairy sector [11][12][13].