中国财险COR与自然灾害的相关性解析

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong potential for stock performance relative to market indices [34]. Core Insights - The correlation between the underwriting profit (COR) of the company and natural disaster-related economic losses has weakened in 2024, primarily due to the implementation of risk reduction services [4][13][29]. - The company's underwriting profit exhibits seasonal fluctuations, with better performance in Q1 and Q2 compared to Q3 and Q4, which also affects stock price movements [11][19][21]. - The company's business model, which integrates insurance with risk reduction services and technology, is expected to support continued improvement in COR and overall performance [14][30][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Correlation Between Stock Performance and Underwriting Profit - The stock price of the company has shown a strong positive correlation with its performance metrics from 2021 to 2023, with seasonal trends indicating higher stock price increases in the first three quarters of the year [11][19]. - The company's net profit has also demonstrated seasonal characteristics, impacting stock price movements [17][21]. 2. Impact of Natural Disasters on COR - Natural disasters are identified as a primary factor affecting the company's COR and underwriting profit, with a strong correlation observed between direct economic losses from disasters and the company's performance metrics from 2010 to 2023 [12][22][23]. - The report highlights that increased natural disaster losses negatively impact the company's COR and claims ratio [12][25]. 3. Risk Reduction Services and Efficiency Improvement - The implementation of risk reduction services has been effective in mitigating the impact of natural disasters on the company's financial performance, leading to improved COR despite increased disaster-related losses in 2024 [13][27][29]. - The company has introduced innovative platforms and services aimed at enhancing risk management and reducing claims costs, contributing to long-term competitive advantages [28]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that performance improvement is the core driver for the company's valuation recovery, with expectations of a 12% return on equity (ROE) in 2024 [14][30]. - The company's unique business model, characterized by negative liability costs and effective risk management, positions it favorably in a declining interest rate environment [30][31].