摩根士丹利：住宿和房地产_上海闪耀

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Attractive" rating to the Asia Pacific industry view, with specific preferences for Macau and ASEAN gaming, and India property sectors [5]. Core Insights - Macau gaming stocks are experiencing a downturn, down 6% year-to-date, and underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 36%. However, Sands China is highlighted as a top pick due to potential market share gains and a favorable dividend outlook starting February 2025 [11][12]. - The report indicates that despite strong visitation numbers in Macau, the market is likely to focus on a projected 8% quarter-over-quarter decline in EBITDA for Q3 2024, leading to negative revisions for 2024 and 2025 estimates [3][17]. - In Hong Kong, residential property sentiment is improving, with significant sales recorded, while retail and office rental momentum has weakened [2][30]. Summary by Sections Macau Gaming - Strong visitation to Macau was reported, with a 29% year-over-year increase, and daily gross gaming revenue (GGR) reaching MOP 1.1 billion, although a decline in EBITDA is expected [3][15]. - Sands China is favored for its potential market share gains and attractive valuation metrics, trading at 10.6x EV/EBITDA, significantly below historical averages [11][12]. - The report anticipates a negative revision in EBITDA estimates for 2024 and 2025, with Sands and Wynn Macau being preferred stocks heading into Q3 earnings [17][19]. Hong Kong Property - The residential property market shows signs of recovery, with SHKP achieving a 100% sell-through rate for its new development, while retail and office sectors are facing declines in rental rates [30][35]. - The report suggests a preference for residential properties over retail and office spaces, indicating a more favorable outlook for residential stocks [30][35]. - Retail rental rates in Hong Kong declined by 3% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting ongoing challenges in the retail sector [30]. India Property - Godrej is highlighted for exceeding pre-sales estimates by 24%, achieving 50% of its FY25 target in the first half of the fiscal year, indicating strong demand in the residential sector [4][42]. - Phoenix Mills reported a 25% year-over-year growth in tenant sales, with expectations for continued strong performance in the upcoming quarters [4][42]. - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating on Godrej and Phoenix, anticipating robust growth in pre-sales and overall performance [42][46].