摩根士丹利：中国材料_供应问题加剧，铝土矿和氧化铝价格有望进一步上涨

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is classified as Attractive [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the domestic bauxite market in China is tight, with year-to-date production down 16%. Alumina supply is also constrained, despite 1 million tons of new capacity starting this month. High-profit alumina plants are operating at high utilization rates without proper maintenance, leading to increased maintenance activities. The inventory of alumina at aluminum plants is only 12 days, down 22% year-over-year. Near-term bauxite and alumina prices in China are expected to receive support from supply tightness [1]. - Major beneficiaries identified in the report are Chalco and Hongqiao, both of which are net long in alumina and possess their own bauxite supply [1]. Summary by Sections Supply Issues - A large bauxite mine in Guinea is experiencing shipment issues due to a dispute with the government over increased logistics-related fees. This mine currently ships 7 million tons to China annually. A resolution is expected, but at a higher cost. Chinese alumina plants have an average bauxite inventory of approximately 1-2 weeks, indicating that prolonged shipment disruptions could impact alumina supply [1]. Market Conditions - The report notes that the alumina supply in China remains tight, with the inventory at aluminum plants only covering 12 days. This situation is exacerbated by the high utilization of alumina plants and ongoing maintenance activities [1]. Company Ratings - The report provides specific ratings for companies within the industry, including: - Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (601600.SS) - Overweight - China Hongqiao Group (1378.HK) - Overweight - Chalco and Hongqiao are highlighted as major beneficiaries due to their positions in the alumina market [1][16][17].