摩根大通：金属和矿业周报 -中国刺激计划与美国关税。美国大选前减少对欧洲矿业和钢铁的投资

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded Anglo American to Neutral with a price target of £23.35 per share and Boliden to Underweight with a price target of SEK 300 per share. It maintains an Underweight rating on Antofagasta and a Neutral rating on BHP. The report prefers Lundin Mining and Norsk Hydro with Overweight ratings [1][2]. Core Insights - The European Metals, Mining & Steel sector has seen a -4% week-over-week decline, although it is approximately 15% higher than the lows in September 2024. This reflects the impact of recent China stimulus announcements, which included significant monetary easing measures. However, the macro impact is expected to be modest, and more substantial fiscal measures are deemed necessary [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the need to reduce exposure to Mining and Steel sectors ahead of the US elections, as trade risks and the outlook for China will need to be reassessed post-election [1][2]. - The report highlights that global steel prices are expected to remain depressed due to approximately 100 million tonnes of steel exports from China. Steel price forecasts for 2025/26 have been lowered, with European HRC now projected at €638 per tonne, down from €700 per tonne [2][3]. Summary by Sections Metals & Mining - The report indicates that metals prices have factored in looser China policy, with iron ore prices increasing by 20% and copper by 10%. However, minimal risk premiums are factored in for the upcoming US elections, particularly concerning potential higher tariffs [1][2]. - The report notes that the anticipated fiscal stimulus from China has not materialized as expected, with only a modest investment plan announced [14]. Steel Sector - ArcelorMittal has been downgraded to Neutral with a price target of €21 per share, and Salzgitter has been downgraded to Underweight with a price target of €11.50 per share. Acerinox is placed on negative catalyst watch [2][3]. - The report suggests that a post-election scenario of increased US protectionism could benefit companies with US-based steel production, such as SSAB and Acerinox, but poses risks to those reliant on steel exports to the US [2][3]. Price Performance - Alumina spot prices have reached record highs of $580 per tonne due to supply disruptions and ongoing demand from Chinese aluminium smelters [4]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of various mining and steel equities, indicating a significant divergence in performance relative to manufacturing PMIs in Europe [10][15].