摩根大通：全球工业的良好、不太良好和丑陋之处

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the global industry sector Core Insights - Global manufacturing has faced challenges over the past two years, with a modest growth rate of 0.9% contributing to the overall GDP increase of 6.3% since mid-2022, primarily driven by the services sector [4][6] - Despite a brief recovery in 2Q24, global industry growth remains sluggish, with a forecasted annualized growth rate of just above 1% [4][6] - Business surveys indicate a concerning trend, with deteriorating signals for both production and final demand, suggesting potential stagnation or contraction in global manufacturing [4][14] Summary by Sections Global Economic Overview - The global economy has seen an imbalanced expansion, with services contributing significantly to GDP growth while the industrial sector has struggled [4][6] - The services sector has added 5.6 percentage points to global GDP growth, while the industrial sector has only contributed 0.7 percentage points [4] Manufacturing Performance - Global factory output has shown a lackluster growth of approximately 1% annualized rate, with a slight acceleration to 1.6% in 2Q24 after a contraction in 1Q24 [6][10] - Consumer demand remains resilient, particularly outside of China, supporting some growth in manufacturing [4][6] Demand and Supply Imbalances - There are significant imbalances between supply and demand, with the US experiencing higher consumer demand compared to its production capabilities, while China has been a weak link in demand despite being a major supplier [12][14] - Political tensions and trade imbalances may exacerbate these issues, potentially leading to further economic challenges [12][14] Business Sentiment and Surveys - Business surveys have shown a marked deterioration, with the J.P. Morgan global manufacturing output PMI dropping below 50 for the first time since December of the previous year, indicating a slight contraction in output [14][17] - The decline in the output PMI is concerning, as it reflects broader weaknesses in demand signals, with new orders PMI also showing significant drops [19][21] Inventory Dynamics - Inventory levels have fluctuated significantly, with recent signals indicating a potential oversupply that may need to be corrected in the coming months [23][26] - The relationship between inventory growth and final demand has shifted, suggesting that manufacturers may need to adjust production levels accordingly [23][26]