花旗：量化全球宏观策略_如何交易美国大选

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for equities in the context of the upcoming US elections, indicating a potential for strong performance despite entering a period of uncertainty [2][3][24]. Core Insights - The macro outlook has shifted from concerns of a hard landing to a "no landing" scenario, with strong payroll data supporting a soft landing as the base case [7][12]. - Election trades should align with macroeconomic trends, favoring breakevens, steepeners, long USD against EUR, and US equities over European stocks due to tariff risks [2][3][12]. - The composition of the government post-election will significantly influence fiscal policies and market reactions, particularly regarding tariffs and tax rates [3][12][13]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The labor market shows signs of strength, with September payrolls exceeding expectations, leading to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's potential actions [7][12]. - Despite a strong labor market, concerns about inflation and fiscal risks remain prevalent, particularly with a potential unified government [3][12]. Election Dynamics - The presidential race is highly competitive, with VP Harris and former President Trump closely matched in polls, impacting market sentiment and trading strategies [10][19]. - Polling data indicates that economic issues are a primary concern for voters, which could influence election outcomes and subsequent market reactions [8][10]. Policy Implications - Trump's proposed policies include significant tax cuts and tariffs, which could lead to increased deficits, while Harris's policies focus on raising corporate taxes and expanding tax credits [12][14]. - The report highlights that neither candidate has a clear plan to address the rising national debt, which could have long-term market implications [12][14]. Market Reactions - Historical data suggests that election years typically see strong equity performance, particularly when an incumbent is involved, although this year presents unique challenges due to the lack of an incumbent [24][25]. - The report anticipates increased volatility in financial markets as Election Day approaches, with a focus on relative value plays across sectors and currencies [21][22].