花旗：全球制药_ GLP-1 趋势进一步加速；Wegovy 起始剂量反弹

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, with target prices set at DKr975 and $1,060 respectively [17][20]. Core Insights - The GLP-1 market is experiencing significant growth, with a rolling 4-week TRx growth of 260% in obesity and 23% in diabetes. Forecasts predict Novo generating $23 billion in diabetes sales and $9 billion in obesity sales for 2024, with peak sales reaching $52 billion and $30 billion respectively [2][8]. - Novo Nordisk is currently supplying over 12 million patients with GLP-1 medications and has plans to increase capacity to supply 50-100 million patients at peak [4][7]. - The report highlights key themes for 2024, including increased access to GLP-1 medications in the US and abroad, broadening indications for treatments, and increased promotional efforts by Novo [4][7]. Summary by Sections GLP-1 Market Dynamics - The report notes that Wegovy and Zepbound have a TRx market share of 56% and 43% respectively, with a year-to-date US GLP-1 Rx growth of 29% after a 70% growth in 2023 [3][8]. - Ozempic retains a leading market share of 46% in the diabetes segment, with recent trends showing improved supply dynamics [3][4]. Company Performance and Projections - Novo Nordisk's management has indicated confidence in upwardly adjusting FY24 guidance due to favorable GLP-1 and insulin dynamics, despite a recent pullback in share prices [2][4]. - The report anticipates that Novo's fill-finish capacity will more than triple through 2024, supporting continuity of supply for patients [7][8]. Market Size and Future Outlook - The global GLP-1 market is projected to exceed $170 billion by 2035, with Novo and Eli Lilly expected to dominate this market [8][20]. - The report emphasizes the potential for GLP-1 medications to expand into additional therapeutic areas, including cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease, which could further enhance market growth [4][20].