花旗：中国电池材料_锂进入 10 月第一周 - 节后数据集表明去库存正在顺利进行中

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ganfeng Lithium is "1" (Buy) with a target price of HK$26.0 per share, reflecting a 30$27 for H-shares and Rmb31.0 for A-shares [14][16] Core Insights - Recent inventory levels of lithium carbonate have decreased to 120,556 tons, down approximately 4% week-over-week, indicating effective destocking during the traditional peak season [2][9] - Lithium production in China has increased by 4% week-over-week to 13,171 tons, with brine and lepidolite production showing declines while spodumene production increased by 12% [2][9] - The report maintains a cautious outlook on lithium prices in the near term, predicting potential losses for Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium in the upcoming 3Q24 results season due to current market conditions [2][12] Summary by Sections Lithium Market Overview - Lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) is currently priced at Rmb76.5k per ton, while lithium hydroxide (LiOH) is priced at Rmb68.4k per ton, showing slight decreases from the previous month [1][2] - The total inventory of Li2CO3 has decreased by 4% compared to late September, with downstream players' inventory down by 13% [1][2] Company Valuations - Ganfeng Lithium's A-share is valued at Rmb31.00 per share based on a 14.5x 2024E EV/EBITDA, reflecting the volatility in lithium prices [12][16] - Tianqi Lithium's A-share is valued at Rmb31.0 based on a 9x 2024E EV/EBITDA, also considering the stabilization of lithium prices entering 2024 [16][12] Production Insights - The production of lithium carbonate has shown a week-over-week increase, with specific production figures indicating a mixed performance across different sources [1][2] - The report highlights the importance of supply discipline among lepidolite producers and the seasonal effects on brine production [2][12]