花旗：中国经济_无细节的稳健前瞻性指引 – 对财政部简报的评论

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it [2]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance (MoF) press conference was perceived as somewhat negative for near-term market sentiment but positive for medium-term macro fundamentals, indicating a pro-growth policy shift is still in progress [6][7][19]. - The proposed package from the MoF focused more on risk resolution rather than immediate growth stimulus, with limited attention given to consumer support [7][19]. - The upcoming National People's Congress (NPC) meeting is expected to provide more details on fiscal policies and budget adjustments [10][16]. Summary by Sections MoF Press Conference - The MoF outlined four incremental policies, including a significant increase in local government debt quota and the use of special bonds for property buybacks [8][10]. - The press conference confirmed that the central government has substantial room to raise debt and deficit, suggesting a potential breach of the 3% deficit threshold in 2025 [10][21]. Fiscal Policies - The report anticipates additional fiscal measures amounting to approximately RMB2 trillion within the year, primarily through off-budget special government bonds [11][12]. - A revenue shortfall of around RMB1.6 trillion was estimated for the first eight months of the year, with the MoF reallocating RMB400 billion from unused local government bond quotas to offset this [12][19]. Market Implications - The tone of the MoF's announcements is expected to improve local risk sentiment, although foreign investors may remain cautious due to the lack of concrete details [22][23]. - The report suggests that the fiscal policies may not be sufficient to drive immediate growth but could empower local governments and banks with more resources [15][19].