世界经济论坛望报告：首席经济学家展

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The global economic outlook is stabilizing but remains vulnerable, with 54% of chief economists expecting conditions to remain unchanged and 37% anticipating a weakening [6][9] - Public debt levels are a significant concern, with 53% of economists in advanced economies and 64% in developing economies viewing them as a threat to macroeconomic stability [27][30] - The upcoming US presidential election is expected to have a substantial impact on global economic policy, with 80% of economists agreeing on its significance [12][14] Summary by Sections 1. Turbulent Crosswinds - The short-term outlook for the global economy shows signs of stabilization, but vulnerabilities persist, with a majority of economists expecting weak growth [6][9] - Political volatility, particularly related to the US elections, is a major source of uncertainty [12][14] - South Asia is projected to perform strongly, with 70% of economists expecting robust growth in 2024 and 2025 [14][15] 2. A Brewing Storm - Public debt levels have risen significantly, with global public debt as a proportion of GDP increasing from 84.2% in 2019 to 93.2% in 2023 [27][30] - The combination of high debt levels and interest rates is leading to increased economic strain, with many countries spending more on debt servicing than on essential services [30][31] - There is a notable difference in expectations of sovereign debt defaults, with 39% of economists expecting an increase in developing economies compared to only 9% in advanced economies [32][33] 3. Better Balanced Growth - The report highlights the need for fiscal consolidation, but many economists doubt its feasibility due to domestic pressures for increased spending [33][36] - Rising debt levels are expected to undermine government efforts to boost growth, particularly in advanced (53%) and developing (65%) economies [39][40] - The outlook for fiscal policy varies by region, with expectations of tightening in the US and Europe, while China is anticipated to loosen its fiscal policy [36][39]