9月贸易数据点评：短期偶发因素扰动，出口增速放缓

Group 1: Export Performance - In September, China's exports (in USD) grew by 2.4% year-on-year, significantly down from the previous month's growth of 8.7%, and below market expectations of 5.9%[3] - The trade surplus for September was $81.71 billion, lower than the expected $87 billion and down from $91.02 billion in the previous month[3] - The decline in exports is attributed to short-term factors such as extreme weather, global container shortages, and high base effects from the previous year[5] Group 2: Import Trends - Imports in September increased by 0.3% year-on-year, below the market expectation of 1.2% and down from 0.5% in the previous month[3] - The continuous slowdown in import growth is linked to weak domestic demand, with insufficient terminal demand affecting the import of raw materials[14] - Key industrial raw materials like crude oil and copper ore saw a decline in import quantities, with significant price adjustments further impacting overall import values[17] Group 3: Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the necessity to expand domestic demand in light of fluctuating trade data and external uncertainties[18] - Despite short-term disruptions, there is potential for a rebound in exports, although the contribution to overall economic growth may be limited in the fourth quarter due to external demand uncertainties[18] - Recent financial policies aimed at boosting market confidence and expectations are crucial for stabilizing domestic economic recovery[18]