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京东集团-SW:以旧换新政策有望推动收入增速回升
JDJD(HK:09618)2024-10-17 06:37

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [2][21]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a revenue growth rebound in Q3 due to the nationwide trade-in subsidy policy, with projected revenue of RMB 258.2 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2][3]. - The company is adjusting its target price to HKD 155 / USD 40, corresponding to a P/E of 10.4x for 2024E and 10.0x for 2025E [2][3]. - The company is anticipated to benefit from the extended Double Eleven shopping event and increased discount efforts, which may further enhance revenue growth in Q4 [2][3]. Financial Projections - Projected operating revenue for 2024E is RMB 1,130,955 million, a slight increase of 0.16% from the previous forecast [3]. - Projected gross profit for 2024E is RMB 173,994 million, with a gross margin of 15.4% [3]. - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024E is RMB 34,564 million, with a net profit margin of 3.1% [3]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024E is projected at RMB 41,349 million, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.7% [3]. Market Context - The company is expected to experience high single-digit growth in GMV, driven by the trade-in subsidy policy and strong performance in the daily necessities category, particularly in supermarkets [2][3]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape and potential challenges in user growth and profit margins, which could impact overall performance [2][3].