10月17日国新办发布会解读：积极稳地产：重在托底，不搞强刺激

Group 1: Policy Overview - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market primarily through support measures rather than strong stimulus[1] - Recent policies include lowering mortgage rates, reducing down payment ratios, and adjusting purchase restrictions[4] - The "white list" of projects eligible for credit will expand, with a target of increasing credit scale to CNY 4 trillion by year-end[5] Group 2: Policy Effects - The effectiveness of the current policies relies on counter-cyclical fiscal measures, which have been marginally increased[7] - Recent data shows a significant improvement in real estate sales, with a 10-day average new home sales area in major cities reaching 226,000 square meters, a reduction in year-on-year decline from -32.4% to -4.5%[13] - First-tier cities have seen new home sales increase by approximately 30% year-on-year, while second-tier cities show slower recovery[14] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The overall real estate market still faces significant challenges, including high inventory levels and ongoing price pressures[15] - The effectiveness of the policies may not meet expectations, posing risks to the stability of the real estate sector[20] - Historical data suggests that recovery in real estate markets can take 4-8 years, indicating a need for patience in observing policy impacts[17]