2024年中国Robotaxi商业化趋势研究报告：每年都有人说是自动驾驶的元年，Robotaxi究竟如何？

Industry Overview - The global Robotaxi industry is transitioning from technical validation to commercial operations, with the US showing a more open attitude towards commercialization, while China follows a gradual development path [4] - In 2023, California registered 1,603 autonomous test vehicles, which collectively drove 9.26 million kilometers in autonomous mode. The primary issues causing disengagements have shifted from perception to predicting the behavior of traffic participants [6] - In Beijing, 38 companies conducted autonomous vehicle road tests by the end of 2023, with cumulative test mileage exceeding 38.93 million kilometers. The city has expanded its testing scenarios to include special weather conditions, unmanned operations, and highway testing [8] Commercialization Progress - The commercialization of Robotaxi is evaluated based on four key dimensions: policy, technology, business/profit models, and market acceptance [14] - Policies are evolving in a spiral manner, with local subsidies accelerating the industry's growth. The industry is expected to reach a significant commercialization milestone between 2027 and 2028 [17] - The "Golden Triangle" model, involving technology companies, OEMs, and ride-hailing platforms, has proven to be the most viable business model. The involvement of state-owned platforms could further enhance the stability and replicability of this model [43] Technological Advancements - Multi-sensor fusion remains the dominant technical solution for Robotaxi, with hardware costs decreasing as sensor configurations are optimized. For example, Baidu's sixth-generation vehicle has reduced costs to 204,600 RMB [32] - Non-end-to-end technology has limitations in scalability, while end-to-end architectures are seen as the core technology for large-scale deployment in the medium term. However, challenges remain in adapting these models to unknown scenarios [35][36] - World models, which enhance the machine's ability to understand physical laws and predict future scenarios, are emerging as a key technology to improve the safety and flexibility of Robotaxi [38] Market Acceptance - Over 70% of consumers are aware of Robotaxi, but there is limited brand association with specific companies. Safety remains the top concern for 73.2% of consumers, followed by ride experience and pricing [53][63] - Approximately 70% of consumers are willing to try Robotaxi, with the lack of clear emergency handling protocols being a major deterrent. Expanding operational areas and increasing vehicle numbers could further boost consumer willingness [66] - Nearly half of consumers (46.9%) hold a rational and optimistic view, believing that Robotaxi will eventually become widespread but will take time to mature [67] Future Projections - The Robotaxi industry in China is expected to enter a rapid growth cycle around 2028, driven by advancements in policy, technology, and market acceptance. By then, the industry is likely to achieve regional profitability and significant cost reductions through mass production [74][75] - Ethical challenges, such as the "trolley problem," remain unresolved but are not expected to hinder the development of autonomous vehicles. Public perception and behavior often diverge, highlighting the complexity of societal acceptance [76]