进出口数据点评（2024年9月）：外需支撑趋弱

Export Performance - In September 2024, China's export amount was $303.71 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.4%, down 6.3 percentage points from August[2] - The export growth rate for September was affected by seasonal misalignment and weakening momentum, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.8% based on 2019[3] - Notable export growth was seen in automobiles (25.7%) and ships (113.8%), while major commodities like agricultural products and textiles faced declines[3] Import Performance - In September 2024, China's import amount was $222.0 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.3%, marking a second consecutive month of near-zero growth[4] - The import growth rate was influenced by low import prices and a potential increase in quantity decline[4] - Imports from the US and ASEAN saw a decline to 6.7% and 4.2%, respectively, while imports from the EU and Australia showed a narrowing decline[4] Trade Balance - The total import and export amount in September was $525.71 billion, with a trade surplus of $81.71 billion, expanding by $6.59 billion (8.8%) year-on-year but contracting by $9.31 billion (-10.2%) month-on-month[2] Future Outlook - For Q4 2024, export momentum is expected to moderate due to weak global demand, with an annual export growth forecast of 4.3%[5] - October's export growth may improve due to a lower base effect, but a year-end decline is anticipated[5] - Domestic policies are expected to provide slight support for import momentum compared to Q3[5]