10月12日财政部新闻发布会点评：财政的空间

Policy Stance - The Ministry of Finance has expressed a strong commitment to support the economy through proactive fiscal policies, indicating a willingness to increase fiscal measures in the future[3] - The Ministry acknowledged that national public budget revenue is below initial targets, emphasizing the need to complete annual budget goals and economic development tasks[3] Funding Requirements - Approximately CNY 2.3 trillion is needed to achieve the two major tasks set by the Ministry of Finance, with an additional CNY 1.3 trillion required to meet budget expenditure targets based on the growth rate from January to August[5] - To achieve a GDP growth rate of around 5%, an extra CNY 0.5 to 1 trillion is necessary to support investment and consumption[5] Funding Sources - Existing incremental policy arrangements and available funds could reach CNY 2.4 trillion, including CNY 400 billion allocated from local government debt limits and CNY 2 trillion in special bond funds available for use in the fourth quarter[5] - The central budget stabilization fund has a balance of CNY 398 billion, with CNY 150 billion available for allocation beyond the planned CNY 250 billion for the year[5] Long-term Direction - The focus of the new policies is on mitigating risks related to local government debt, financial institutions, and the real estate sector, while also ensuring social welfare and promoting consumption[6] - A significant increase in government debt limits may occur, potentially adding CNY 10 trillion to the existing limits, which will help alleviate local debt pressures[7] Market Impact - The expansionary fiscal policy is expected to boost market sentiment and improve fundamental expectations, although the A-share market may experience cautious reactions in the short term[10] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.9% and 2.2%, with a potential adjustment of 10-20 basis points[10] Future Outlook - The fiscal deficit rate may be significantly raised in the future, with expectations for the 2025 fiscal deficit rate to reach 3.8%, maintaining the level set after adjustments in 2023[12] - An increase in special bond issuance is anticipated, with CNY 4 trillion allocated for new special bonds, part of which will be used for debt resolution and acquisition of existing housing stock[12]