中国物价数据点评（2024年9月）：等待政策生效

Inflation Overview - September CPI inflation recorded at 0.4%, lower than previous value (0.6%) and market expectation (0.7%) [2] - September PPI inflation at -2.8%, below previous value (-1.8%) and market expectation (-2.5%) [2] CPI Analysis - Food prices remain a strong support for CPI, with pork, fresh vegetables, and fruits continuing to rise, but at a slower pace [3] - September food prices increased by 0.8% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, contributing 0.6 percentage points to CPI [3] - Core CPI fell by 0.1% month-on-month and grew only 0.1% year-on-year, marking a decline for three consecutive months [3] PPI Analysis - September PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of -2.8% and a month-on-month decrease of -0.6% [4] - Prices in the mining, raw materials, and processing industries fell by 1.6%, 1.2%, and 0.6% respectively, reflecting weak domestic demand [4] Future Outlook - Anticipated fiscal policies aimed at supporting economic recovery and consumer confidence may lead to a rise in CPI inflation towards 0.6% for the year [5] - PPI inflation is expected to stabilize around -1.9% as domestic demand improves [5]