美国新一轮对华贸易战：结构特征与经济影响

Group 1: Trade Policy Overview - The Biden administration announced an increase in tariffs on seven categories of goods imported from China, with a total value of approximately $18.6 billion, affecting 4.4$500 billion, while the new tariffs only affect $18.6 billion worth of goods[12][11] - There is a potential for "export rush" behavior among Chinese companies to mitigate the impact of tariffs, which may temporarily support export momentum[12][11] - Increased trade uncertainty may arise, affecting bilateral trade dynamics and potentially influencing other countries to adopt similar measures against China[12][11] Group 3: Long-term Implications - The long-term effects of the trade war could lead to a restructuring of global supply chains and adjustments in China's industrial structure[14][15] - Post-election, there is a possibility of further increases in tariffs, with a non-linear escalation not ruled out[14][15] - The U.S. may expand the scope of tariffs to include goods processed in third countries that contain Chinese elements, reflecting changes in trade patterns[14][15] Group 4: Economic Context - Since 2021, the trade dependency between China and the U.S. has decreased, but China's export performance remains closely tied to U.S. demand[2][14] - The U.S. remains the most significant single market for Chinese manufacturing, necessitating proactive measures from China to prepare for potential changes in the trade environment[2][14]