建筑装饰2024年1-9月投资数据点评：三季度经济增长略显压力，传统基建承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the construction and decoration industry, rating it as "Overweight" [2][3]. Core Insights - Economic growth showed slight pressure in Q3 2024, with GDP growth at +4.6% in Q3 and +4.8% year-to-date [2][3]. - Fixed asset investment remained stable, with a year-to-date increase of +3.4% [2][3]. - Infrastructure investment (including all categories) grew by +9.2% year-on-year, while investment excluding electricity increased by +4.1% [2][3]. - The report highlights that traditional infrastructure investment faces pressure due to local government debt and the pursuit of quality by construction companies [2][3]. - Real estate investment remains low, with a year-on-year decrease of -10.1% for the first nine months of 2024 [8][9]. - The report anticipates a slow recovery in real estate investment due to challenges in supply and inventory replenishment [8][9]. Summary by Sections Economic Overview - Q3 GDP growth was +4.6%, with a year-to-date growth of +4.8% [2][3]. - Fixed asset investment showed a stable growth of +3.4% year-on-year [2][3]. Infrastructure Investment - Total infrastructure investment increased by +9.2% year-on-year, with a notable growth in the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply sector at +24.8% [2][3]. - Investment in transportation, storage, and postal services rose by +7.7% [2][3]. Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment decreased by -10.1% year-on-year, with construction starts down by -22.2% and completions down by -24.4% [8][9]. - The report suggests that the pace of investment recovery will be slower than in previous cycles [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on state-owned enterprises such as China Railway and China Railway Construction, and highlights potential in companies like China Communications Construction and China Metallurgical Group [2][3][10].