摩根士丹利：投资者介绍_中国财政方案_第一部分

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it discusses a significant fiscal stimulus and policy measures aimed at economic recovery, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the near term. Core Insights - The report outlines a "Trillion-dollar Fiscal Pivot" focusing on debt restructuring and various policy measures to stimulate the economy, including a significant one-time debt swap estimated at Rmb6 trillion over multiple years [2] - The report emphasizes a multi-faceted approach to reflation, rebalancing, restructuring, and reform, with expected progress by the end of 2025 [4] - The anticipated fiscal stimulus includes a Rmb10 trillion consumption-focused package over the next two years and additional monetary easing measures [4] Summary by Sections Local Debt Resolution - The Ministry of Finance (MoF) has identified four policy focus areas, including a significant one-time debt swap to resolve implicit local debt, estimated at Rmb6 trillion over multiple years [2] - Government bond issuance is expected to reach Rmb1,120 billion [2] Housing Inventory - The report highlights the government's endorsement of using government bonds to buy back housing inventory, indicating a proactive approach to address housing market issues [2] SOE Bank Recapitalization - Special Treasury Bonds will be issued to recapitalize major banks, facilitating risk digestion, with an estimated issuance of Rmb3,160 billion in 2023 [2] Social Benefits - Additional allowances for students are projected to increase from Rmb2,000 to Rmb12,000 over the next few years, reflecting a commitment to social welfare [2] Expected Progress by End-2025 - The report outlines various policy measures with expected outcomes, including a 0.5 percentage point GDP fiscal stimulus this year and a 30 basis point policy rate cut [4] - A comprehensive local government financing vehicle (LGFV) debt resolution plan is anticipated to share the burden among central government, local government, the People's Bank of China (PBoC), and banks [4]