摩根士丹利：中国经济_万亿美元财政政策转向_第一部分 - 债务重组开始

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but emphasizes the importance of local government debt restructuring and fiscal measures to restore confidence and stimulate consumption. Core Insights - The central government is initiating a significant local government debt restructuring program estimated at Rmb6 trillion or more over multiple years to alleviate the burden of Rmb70-80 trillion in informal local debt [3][4] - The Ministry of Finance (MoF) confirmed the use of government bonds to purchase housing inventory, marking a critical step in stabilizing the housing market [3] - The report anticipates a supplementary fiscal package of Rmb2 trillion in 2024 for local debt resolution and bank recapitalization, with an additional Rmb2-3 trillion expected in 2025 for further fiscal support [7][8] Summary by Sections Local Debt Resolution - A significant one-time debt swap is planned to address implicit local debt, which is expected to be the largest move of its kind in recent years [3][4] - The central government aims to take over local debt burdens to restore stability and improve liquidity for local corporates [6] Housing Market Stabilization - The first official endorsement of using government bonds to buy back housing inventory has been confirmed, which is expected to help stabilize the housing market [3] SOE Bank Recapitalization - Special Treasury Bonds (STB) will be issued to recapitalize major banks, facilitating risk digestion and supporting the financial system [3] Social Benefits - The focus will be on providing additional allowances for students and addressing the financial struggles of the elderly, although overall fiscal support for consumption and social welfare remains limited [3][4]