摩根大通：中国房地产财政部将加大政策支持_专家电话会议总结

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for companies such as China Resources Land and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services, while Sunac China and Shimao Group Holdings are rated "Underweight" (UW) [28][30]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance (MOF) has announced three key policies aimed at supporting the property sector, including allowing local governments to raise special local government bonds (LGBs) for purchasing idle land and unsold homes, and optimizing tax rates for value-added tax (VAT) and land appreciation tax (LAT) [1][5][6]. - The report anticipates that more policy support will be forthcoming to stabilize the property market, with home prices expected to stabilize around the second quarter of 2025 [1][8]. - Sales during the Golden Week showed significant growth in tier-1 cities, with primary sales increasing by 50% to 275% compared to the previous quarter [7][11]. Summary by Sections Policy Announcements - Local governments are permitted to raise special LGBs to purchase idle land, estimated at approximately 4.9 billion square meters of gross floor area (GFA) that has not started construction [2]. - The purchase of unsold homes is supported through special LGBs, which offer lower funding costs compared to traditional bank loans, enhancing local governments' incentives to buy [5]. - A new policy direction aims to eliminate the distinction between ordinary and non-ordinary housing for tax purposes, potentially lowering transaction costs and encouraging market turnover [6]. Market Outlook - The report projects a sales volume of approximately 900 million square meters GFA for 2024, with a long-term normalized level expected to be between 700 million and 800 million square meters GFA [9][22]. - The expert call indicated that if home price corrections worsen, further demand-side easing measures may be implemented in January 2025 [8][18]. Company Preferences - The report favors state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with undemanding valuations, such as CR Land and Poly PS, while distressed companies like Sunac and Shimao are expected to remain volatile [1][8]. - The report highlights that developers are cautious about raising prices, focusing instead on maintaining sales volume amid a positive market sentiment [17].