摩根士丹利：中国材料_需求追踪 – 刺激措施改善需求前景

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is classified as Attractive [1]. Core Insights - Demand outlook is improving due to property sales recovery during the holiday period, with increased demand for steel and cement [1]. - Production and sales of industrial goods are showing positive trends, with notable increases in daily crude steel output and passenger vehicle sales [1]. - Local government special bond issuance has reached Rmb3.6 trillion year-to-date, indicating strong infrastructure investment [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Demand Tracker - Property sales improved during the National Day Holiday, with a 77% year-on-year increase in weekly primary unit sales in 50 cities [1]. - Steel and cement demand is picking up, with apparent cement shipments in eastern China improving post-holiday [1]. Production and Sales - The national operating rate of alumina producers was 86.70%, up 0.8 percentage points week-on-week [1]. - Daily crude steel output at major producers was 2.01 million tons in late September, reflecting a 1.3% increase compared to mid-September [1]. Infrastructure and Investment - In the first nine months of 2024, China railway completed fixed asset investment of Rmb561.2 billion, up 10.3% year-on-year [1]. - Local government special bond issuance totaled Rmb128 billion in October, bringing the year-to-date figure to Rmb3.6 trillion, which is approximately 93% of the total quota [1]. Building Materials Activity - Cement prices in eastern China increased by Rmb30-100 per ton, and apparent consumption of long and flat steel products rose by 25.5% week-on-week [1]. - Glass inventory decreased by 18.3% week-on-week due to restocking at processing plants [1].