摩根士丹利：中国在线旅行社_3Q24预览及黄金周旅游更新

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating on China Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) due to resilient travel demand and favorable comparisons ahead, with potential upside from consumption recovery [1][5]. Core Insights - Domestic tourism and receipts increased by 5.9% and 6.3% year-over-year, respectively, adjusted for the number of holiday days [2]. - Daily air passenger volume rose by 11% compared to 2023 and 22% compared to 2019, indicating strong growth in domestic air travel [2]. - The report anticipates a solid performance in 3Q24, projecting 13% revenue growth and 21% growth in non-GAAP operating profit for Trip.com Group (TCOM) [4][8]. - The report forecasts a 20% core OTA revenue growth and a 37% growth in non-IFRS adjusted profit for Tongcheng Travel Holdings in 3Q24 [4][8]. Summary by Sections Domestic Travel Performance - Domestic tourists and receipts rose 5.9% and 6.3% YoY, respectively [2]. - Daily air passenger volume increased by 11% YoY and 22% compared to 2019 [2]. Outbound and Inbound Travel - Daily average visitors for outbound and inbound travel grew by 26% YoY, with mainland tourists increasing by 33% YoY [3]. - International flight recovery reached 84% of 2019 levels, with Southeast/East Asia accounting for approximately 77% of total flight volume [3]. 3Q24 Financial Expectations - TCOM is expected to achieve 13% revenue growth and 21% non-GAAP operating profit growth, with a flat non-GAAP profit YoY due to tax normalization [4][8]. - Tongcheng is projected to have a 20% core OTA revenue growth and a 37% non-IFRS adjusted profit growth in 3Q24 [4][8]. Valuation and Price Target Adjustments - Price targets for TCOM and Tongcheng have been raised to US$73 and HK$24, respectively, reflecting a switch to DCF valuation [5]. - TCOM and Tongcheng are trading at 15x and 12x 2025 estimated P/Es, respectively, which is considered attractive compared to the internet average NTM P/E of approximately 16x [5].