摩根士丹利：舜宇光学_9 月_手机镜头出货量将超过预期，而 CCM 将在 2024 年达不到预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sunny Optical is Overweight, with a price target of HK$72.00, indicating a potential upside of 30% from the current price of HK$55.25 [7][27]. Core Insights - The report highlights a deceleration in the year-to-date growth rate of handset CCM shipments, which fell from +3% in January-August to -1% in January-September. In contrast, handset lenses showed resilience with a +6% year-over-year growth in September and +20% growth in January-September [3][4]. - Vehicle lens shipments increased by 13% year-over-year to 9.31 million units, aligning with the full-year growth target of 10-15% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Handset CCM and Lenses - Handset CCM shipments declined by 30% year-over-year to 36.77 million units in September, while handset lens shipments increased by 6% year-over-year to 118.7 million units. Both segments experienced a slowdown in year-to-date growth [3][4]. - The report anticipates that if handset lens shipments maintain their levels in Q4 2024, they could exceed the full-year shipment target. Conversely, without significant improvement, handset CCM is likely to miss its full-year target [4]. Vehicle Lenses - The growth rate for vehicle lenses improved slightly from 11.4% in January-August to 11.6% in January-September, with aggregate shipments in the first nine months showing a 11.6% year-over-year increase [3][4]. Financial Metrics - For the fiscal year ending December 2023, Sunny Optical is projected to have a net revenue of RMB 31,681 million, with an estimated EPS of RMB 0.99. The expected revenue for 2024 is RMB 36,300 million, with an EPS of RMB 2.39 [7][11].