摩根大通：中国_CPI和PPI通胀均低于预期，由于政策导向基本缺失，国内供需失衡持续存在

Investment Rating - The report maintains a forecast for low, positive headline CPI inflation through the rest of the year, with a full-year 2024 CPI inflation forecast at 0.4% and PPI deflation expected to continue through year-end [8][9]. Core Insights - Domestic supply and demand imbalances persist, with a lack of significant policy redirection impacting inflation dynamics. September CPI moderated to 0.4% year-on-year, while PPI deflation intensified, dropping 2.8% year-on-year [1][3]. - Recent policy measures from the Chinese government focus on monetary easing, fiscal support, and structural rebalancing, but direct consumption support remains limited, indicating a cautious approach to stimulating demand [9][11]. - The report highlights weak consumption linked to low income expectations and high household saving rates, suggesting that more robust measures are needed to stabilize the housing market and improve consumer confidence [10][11]. Summary by Sections CPI Analysis - September CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, down from 0.6% in August, with a seasonally adjusted month-on-month decline of 0.1% [2][12]. - Food prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, while vehicle fuel prices fell by 2.8% [2][12]. - Core CPI inflation moderated to 0.1% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing sluggish domestic demand conditions [2][7]. PPI Analysis - PPI deflation intensified, with a year-on-year drop of 2.8%, compared to -1.8% in August [3][13]. - Consumer goods PPI fell by 1.3% year-on-year, while producer goods PPI dropped by 3.3% year-on-year, indicating broad-based declines across various sectors [3][6]. Policy Measures - The Chinese government has initiated a new round of policy easing, focusing on risk mitigation rather than significant supply-demand rebalancing [9][11]. - The recent Ministry of Finance press conference did not announce the size of the fiscal package, indicating a cautious approach to fiscal stimulus [7][9]. - The report suggests that while there are signals of policy shifts, they are insufficient to alleviate deflationary pressures in the economy [11][12].