摩根士丹利： 软件和服务_每周重启 – 2025 年 IT 预算之窗

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the technology sector, specifically software and services, is "In-Line" [1][2]. Core Insights - The 3Q24 survey indicates an acceleration in reseller business growth, primarily driven by cloud subscriptions, leading to a raised growth forecast of 26% for cloud revenue in 3Q24 [1]. - IT budget growth is stable at 3.4% for 2024, with an initial forecast of 3.6% for 2025, reflecting slight signs of acceleration in the IT spending environment despite near-term uncertainties [1]. - The survey results show that Microsoft is well-positioned to capture a share of the growing GenAI spend, with stable software growth expectations for CY24 and moderate acceleration anticipated for CY25 [1]. Company Ratings - Companies rated as "Overweight" include Amadeus, Compugroup, Dassault Systemes, Sage, SAP, and Trustpilot [2]. - Companies rated as "Equal-weight" include Nemetschek, TeamViewer, and Capgemini [2]. - Companies rated as "Underweight" include Fortnox, Hexagon AB, Sinch, and Temenos [2]. Price Performance - Temenos was the best performer last week with a 7% increase, while Fortnox was the worst performer with a 6% decrease [1]. - Year-to-date, Trustpilot and SAP have shown significant price increases of 54% and 48% respectively, while Worldline has decreased by 58% [5][6]. Company Guidance - SAP's guidance for FY24 includes a non-IFRS operating profit of €7.6-7.9 billion, with a free cash flow expectation of approximately €3.5 billion [12][14]. - Adyen anticipates revenue growth of 11-14.5% year-over-year, with an EBITDA margin expected to exceed 50% by 2026 [12][14]. - Temenos expects an ARR growth of approximately 13% and free cash flow growth of over 16% [16]. Upcoming Events - Key upcoming earnings reports include SAP and Temenos for 3Q24, scheduled for October 21, 2024 [9]. - Other notable reports include Atos and Fortnox on October 24, 2024 [9].