摩根大通：中东和北非股票地缘政治风险 - 对股票和行业的影响

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating on QNB shares and highlights a preference for Saudi banks trading at attractive valuations [17][28]. Core Insights - Geopolitical risks have recently impacted MENA stocks, with a focus on price target sensitivity to Cost of Equity (COE) assumptions, particularly for growth stocks and those with leveraged balance sheets [2][6]. - The report identifies Al Rajhi Bank, Alinma Bank, and APPC as having the highest price target sensitivity to a 100bps increase in COE, while also being key beneficiaries of reduced geopolitical risk [2][32]. - The report emphasizes that unless the current conflict escalates to involve GCC countries directly, the financial market impact is expected to remain limited [2][6]. Financials - MENA banks have negligible direct exposure to troubled regions, with indirect exposure linked to system liquidity and oil prices [17]. - QNB is highlighted as a defensive stock due to its strong shareholder backing and diversified operations, while Saudi banks like SABB and RIBL are noted for attractive valuations [17][28]. Real Estate - The UAE property sector, particularly in Dubai, is viewed as a safe haven during geopolitical uncertainty, with strong rental yields and visibility from existing property backlogs [18]. - Aldar's portfolio is considered more defensive due to its exposure to residential and commercial leasing [18]. Healthcare & Pharma - The Saudi healthcare sector is deemed defensive due to domestic exposure and critical demand, with Sulaiman Al Habib identified as a key player [19]. - Saudi pharma producers face supply chain risks due to reliance on imported raw materials [19]. TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) - stc is recognized as the most defensive name in the TMT space, supported by a visible dividend yield and strong liquidity [20]. - Media companies like Al Arabia and MBC Group are sensitive to regional instability due to their reliance on advertising spend [20]. Consumer - Almarai is highlighted as a defensive consumer staple due to its resilient category exposure and low foreign ownership [22]. - Americana and Seera are identified as more exposed to geopolitical risks, particularly in tourism [22]. Industrials - The report notes that Dubai-based industrial names are less vulnerable to geopolitical tensions, while Saudi companies like ACWA Power are expected to be relatively defensive [22]. Energy and Petchems - ADNOC Drilling and ADNOC Gas are viewed as defensive stocks in the petchem space, while Kayan and APPC are considered less defensive due to their leveraged balance sheets [25][26].