摩根大通：中国_财政公告侧重于降低风险，具体数字和直接消费支持仍然基本缺失

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry or companies involved Core Insights - The fiscal measures announced by the Ministry of Finance focus on risk mitigation rather than additional stimulus for consumption or investment [1][5][6] - The upcoming NPC meeting is expected to lift the government debt ceiling significantly, but no increase in this year's fiscal deficit is anticipated [1][6][19] - The fiscal support for local government debt resolution is a priority, with a quota of 2.2 trillion yuan allocated for 2023 and 1.2 trillion yuan for 2024 [7][11] Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy Areas - Four key areas of fiscal policy were outlined: support for local government debt resolution, issuance of special central government bonds for bank capital injection, expansion of special local government bond proceeds for housing, and targeted cash support for disadvantaged groups [2][4][18] Government Debt and Fiscal Deficit - The government debt ceiling is expected to be raised, with a significant allocation of 400 billion yuan from local debt room to address funding stress [4][11] - The fiscal revenue growth has been weaker than expected, leading to a projected gap of around 1 trillion yuan, which will not trigger a lift in the fiscal deficit for 2024 [1][11] Housing Market Support - Measures to support the housing market include utilizing special local government bond proceeds for purchasing idle land and commodity housing inventory [16][17] - Existing fiscal instruments for housing support include personal income tax refunds and fiscal subsidies for special loan schemes [14][16] Support for Disadvantaged Groups - Limited consumption support measures have been announced, with a focus on enhancing support for students and individuals in extreme poverty [18][19] - The increase in national scholarships and student loan support is expected to have a modest macro impact [18]