摩根士丹利：中国航空_ CAAC – 2024_25 W_S 赛季时刻计划

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" [5] Core Insights - Domestic slots are expected to decline by 1% year-over-year (YoY) for the Winter/Spring season, while international passenger slots are projected to grow by 5% YoY, reaching 77% of 2019 levels [2][3] - Chinese airlines are reducing domestic slots to improve execution ratios amid profitability challenges, with regional slots at 94% and international slots at 88% of 2019 levels [3] - Major airports like Shanghai and Guangzhou are seeing varying recovery rates, with Shanghai's international routes just 8.5% below 2019 levels, while Guangzhou's domestic slots are 21% above 2019 levels [4][5] Summary by Sections Capacity and Slot Plans - CAAC's slot plans for the 2024 Winter/Spring season indicate a 1% decline in domestic slots YoY, while international slots are set to increase by 5% YoY [2] - Non-domestic capacity is recovering to pre-Covid levels, with adjustments possible during the flight season [2] Airline Performance - Domestic slots for Chinese airlines are projected to decrease by 7% YoY, with the Big 3 airlines seeing a decline of 4% to 2% YoY [3] - Compared to 2019, the Spring season shows a 51% increase in domestic slots for all Chinese airlines [3] Airport Insights - Shanghai's international routes are recovering faster than foreign airlines, with total non-domestic slots approximately double that of Beijing and Guangzhou [4] - Guangzhou's domestic slots are 21% above 2019 levels, while international routes for Chinese airlines are 20% below 2019 levels [4] - Beijing's domestic slots are 26% above 2019 levels, but international routes remain significantly below 2019 levels [4]