摩根大通：腾讯-在贝塔交易中识别腾讯的阿尔法

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Tencent with a price target of HK$520.00 for December 2025, raised from a previous target of HK$480.00 for December 2024 [1][10][22]. Core Insights - Tencent's earnings are primarily driven by non-cyclical operations, particularly digital entertainment, which constitutes approximately 50% of its revenue. The cyclical operations, including ads and fintech, account for about 40% of revenue. The report anticipates that non-cyclical operations will continue to generate positive alpha, especially in gaming, while cyclical operations are expected to benefit from a consumption recovery similar to that of e-commerce platforms in the upcoming quarters [1][9][23]. - Online game revenue growth is projected to accelerate to 15% year-over-year (YoY) in the third quarter of 2024, up from 9% YoY in the second quarter, and further to 27% YoY in the fourth quarter of 2024. This growth is attributed to a lower base from previous titles, strong performance of established games, and revenue from newly launched games [1][9][15][23]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for Tencent is forecasted at RMB 166 billion for the third quarter of 2024, which is 1% below Bloomberg consensus. The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is estimated at RMB 5.87, which is 3% above consensus [3]. - Adjusted EPS for 2024 is revised up to RMB 23.08, reflecting a 3% increase, while for 2025, it is revised to RMB 26.97, a 6% increase [6][19]. Game Performance - The cash grossing from D&F Mobile is estimated to reach RMB 6-8 billion in the third quarter of 2024, representing about 20% of Tencent's domestic accounting revenue or 14% of its total gaming revenue in the second quarter of 2024. Tencent expects to recognize this revenue over 9-12 months [2][13]. - The newly launched shooting game Delta Force has gained significant traction, reaching 25 million registered users within a week of its launch [2][14]. Valuation Metrics - The price target of HK$520 is based on an 18x price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025, which is at the low end of Tencent's historical range [10][24]. - The report highlights a projected revenue growth of 8.6% for 2024 and 12.6% for 2025, with adjusted net income expected to reach RMB 218.2 billion in 2024 and RMB 254.8 billion in 2025 [27].