璞泰来：Q3现金流同比改善，负极盈利有望回升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year improvement in cash flow for Q3, with negative electrode profitability expected to rebound [11] - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 was 9.84 billion yuan, down 15.81% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.239 billion yuan, down 23.97% year-on-year [11] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved revenue of 3.509 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.62% year-on-year but an increase of 6.41% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 381 million yuan, up 17.31% year-on-year but down 7.83% quarter-on-quarter [11] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s gross margin and net margin for Q3 were 28.27% and 12.89%, respectively, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease in net margin primarily due to asset impairment [11] - The company recorded an asset impairment of 121 million yuan in Q3, a 19% increase quarter-on-quarter [11] - Operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2024 was 1.076 billion yuan, up 67.86% year-on-year, with Q3 showing a positive cash flow of 1.436 billion yuan [11] Product Pricing and Market Conditions - The price decline of negative electrode materials has narrowed, with high-end artificial graphite and mid-range artificial graphite averaging 54,200 yuan/ton and 28,500 yuan/ton in Q3 2024, down 11.57% and 20.46% year-on-year, respectively [11] - The company’s integrated production capacity in Sichuan is expected to improve cost efficiency, while new silicon-based negative electrode capacity in Anhui is anticipated to contribute to revenue growth starting early next year [11] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 15.779 billion yuan, 17.375 billion yuan, and 20.384 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.86%, 10.11%, and 17.32%, respectively [11] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.733 billion yuan, 2.207 billion yuan, and 2.746 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -9.37%, 27.38%, and 24.41% [11] - The estimated EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.81 yuan, 1.03 yuan, and 1.28 yuan, with a three-year CAGR of 12.83% [11]