三季度及9月经济数据点评：三季度负产出缺口扩大，但9月供需均有改善

Economic Performance - In Q3, China's GDP grew by 4.6% year-on-year, slightly down from 4.7% in the previous quarter, indicating a widening negative output gap as the quarter-on-quarter growth was only 0.9%, below the potential growth rate of 1.2%-1.3%[4][12][13]. - The secondary industry was the main drag on GDP growth, with its value-added growth slowing to 4.6% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in the previous quarter[16][57]. Consumption and Investment - In September, retail sales showed a mild recovery with a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, up from 0.3% in August, while fixed asset investment also maintained positive growth at 0.8% month-on-month[5][21][34]. - The real estate sector continued to decline, with property sales dropping by 8.3% month-on-month in September, compared to a 5.4% decline in August[32]. Industrial Production - Industrial production improved in September, with the industrial value-added increasing by 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, up from 0.3% in August[44][43]. - Power generation also rose by 1.0% month-on-month in September, although export delivery values fell by 1.7% month-on-month, reflecting a broader trend of weakening external demand[47][44]. Employment Trends - The urban unemployment rate in September decreased to 5.1%, down from 5.3% in August, indicating a slight improvement in the job market[52][54]. Future Outlook - Despite the overall weak economic performance in Q3, improvements in demand and production data in September suggest potential recovery, supported by recent counter-cyclical policy measures aimed at stimulating growth[8][56].