Guolian Securities·2024-10-19 14:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][13]. Core Views - The company has benefited significantly from the rise in metal prices, with Q3 performance meeting expectations. The main metal production has seen both volume and price increases, contributing to substantial year-on-year profit growth [10][11]. - The company is a global mining giant, and its world-class resource and capacity allocation will support rapid production growth, particularly in copper and gold [13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 230.396 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.39%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 24.357 billion yuan, up 50.68% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 23.747 billion yuan, reflecting a 56.16% increase [10][12]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 79.980 billion yuan, a 7.11% year-on-year increase and a 5.74% quarter-on-quarter increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.273 billion yuan, up 58.17% year-on-year and 5.09% quarter-on-quarter [10][11]. Production and Cost Management - The company reported production of copper, gold, silver, and zinc for Q1-Q3 2024 at 789,500 tons, 54,270 tons, 311,110 tons, and 309,700 tons, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +4.7%, +8.3%, +6.7%, and -4.2% [11]. - The average prices for copper, gold, silver, and zinc increased by 10.0%, 21.9%, 28.9%, and 5.1% year-on-year for Q1-Q3 2024 [11]. - The company has made progress in cost control, achieving a comprehensive gross margin of 19.53% for Q1-Q3 2024, an increase of 4.37 percentage points year-on-year [12]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 32.225 billion yuan, 38.411 billion yuan, and 45.084 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 1.21 yuan, 1.45 yuan, and 1.70 yuan [13][14]. - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 14.5, 12.2, and 10.4 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [13].