CHINA LONGYUAN(00916)2024-10-20 02:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longyuan Power (916 HK) with a target price of HKD 8.35, indicating a potential upside of 32.8% from the current price of HKD 6.29 [11]. Core Views - The report anticipates a weaker net profit for the third quarter, projecting a year-on-year decline of 22% to RMB 4.7 billion, which aligns with market expectations [2]. - There was a significant rebound in wind power generation in September, with a year-on-year increase of 29%, primarily due to improved wind speeds in coastal areas [1]. - The overall power generation for the third quarter is expected to rise by 6% year-on-year, driven by a 42% increase in solar power generation, while thermal power generation is projected to decline by 14% due to project sales [1][2]. - The report highlights that operational improvements and progress in acquisitions are key factors for valuation enhancement, with an upward adjustment of the valuation standard to 10.5 times the 2025 earnings [2]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the expected revenue is RMB 37.638 billion, a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year, while net profit is projected at RMB 6.355 billion, reflecting a 26.4% increase [3][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 0.65, down 11.8% year-on-year, with a forecasted recovery in subsequent years, expecting EPS to rise to RMB 0.97 by 2026 [3][12]. - The report projects a gradual increase in installed capacity, with wind power expected to reach 30,754 MW by 2024 and 41,254 MW by 2026 [7][12]. - The report also notes a decline in the operating profit margin by approximately 6 percentage points due to falling on-grid electricity prices for wind and solar [2].