产业在线9月空调数据简评：内销同比回正，外销继续高增

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the home appliance industry [7][15]. Core Insights - In September, domestic air conditioner sales showed a year-on-year increase, aligning with expectations, while external sales continued to grow significantly. The inventory levels in the distribution channels have been effectively reduced, and terminal sales are on an upward trend, indicating potential elasticity in future shipments [4][15]. - The report highlights that the leading companies have adopted a moderate pricing strategy, with advantages in high-end and offline channels. However, the disparity in sales volume among these companies suggests that significant changes in market structure are unlikely [4][15]. - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the air conditioning market in 2024, driven by policy support for upgrading cycles and strong operational momentum from leading white goods manufacturers [4][15]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales Data - In September 2024, the production of home air conditioners reached 12.21 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.00%, while sales totaled 12.13 million units, up 21.39%. Domestic sales accounted for 6.10 million units, increasing by 7.43%, and exports reached 6.02 million units, up 39.80% [11][17]. - The report notes that the inventory at the end of September was 14.85 million units, down 11.15% year-on-year [11][17]. Domestic Market Performance - Domestic air conditioner sales in September showed a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, with a notable recovery in sales momentum compared to previous months. The report anticipates a 2% year-on-year increase in domestic shipments for Q4 2023, supported by the policy-driven replacement program [12][15]. - The performance of leading brands varied, with Midea and Haier showing positive growth, while Gree experienced a decline in domestic sales [13][15]. Export Market Performance - External sales of air conditioners in September increased by 39.8%, continuing a trend of double-digit growth for four consecutive months. The report projects a 23% year-on-year increase in external sales for Q4 2023, with manageable base pressure [14][15]. - Leading brands such as Midea and Gree reported significant growth in export shipments, with Gree's exports increasing by 67% year-on-year [14][15]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the home appliance industry is poised for growth, driven by favorable policies and strong performance from leading manufacturers. It recommends focusing on companies like Midea, Gree, Haier, and Hisense [15].