国新办五部门发布会点评：回稳可期

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The downward trend in the real estate market has eased, indicating a potential stabilization[1] - The "two increases" policy reflects important measures for the real estate sector, including the implementation of 1 million urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, which is expected to boost regional real estate investment[1] - From January to August 2024, the year-on-year growth rates for urban village and dilapidated housing renovations were -9.8% and -4.7%, respectively[1] Group 2: Financial Measures and Impacts - The policy includes "four cancellations" and "four reductions" aimed at easing housing purchase restrictions and lowering mortgage rates[1] - The average interest rate on existing housing loans is expected to decrease by approximately 0.5 percentage points, saving around 150 billion yuan in interest expenses for 50 million households[1] - The credit scale for "white list" projects is set to increase to 4 trillion yuan by the end of the year, enhancing financial support for real estate projects[1] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Recent data shows that the sales area of commercial housing in major cities has seen a reduction in year-on-year decline, with decreases of 14.5% and 12.0% for the top ten cities and 30 major cities, respectively, indicating a narrowing of the downturn[1] - The People's Bank of China anticipates that most existing housing loan interest rate adjustments will be completed by October 25, 2024[1] - The overall sentiment is optimistic, with expectations for positive results in October data as the market begins to stabilize[1]