商贸零售行业点评研究：9月社零同比+3.2%，高于市场预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail industry [6][9]. Core Insights - In September, the total retail sales reached 4.11 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, exceeding market expectations [3][6]. - Retail sales excluding automobiles amounted to 3.66 trillion yuan, growing by 3.6% year-on-year [3][6]. - Retail sales of enterprises above designated size were 1.69 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [3][6]. - The month-on-month growth of total retail sales improved by 0.39% compared to August [6]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - The total retail sales in September showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, higher than the expected 2.27% [6]. - The adjusted month-on-month growth indicates a positive trend, with a 1.1 percentage point increase compared to the previous month [6]. - Dining revenue in September grew by 3.1%, marking the first time this year that its growth rate fell below that of goods retail [6]. Consumption Trends - Essential consumption categories showed varied growth rates, with retail sales in September reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.1% for essential goods [6]. - Online retail sales of physical goods maintained a stable share, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [6]. - The report highlights a recovery in optional consumption, driven by policies encouraging the replacement of old goods, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth segments, optimizing market structure, and capitalizing on domestic demand trends [6]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Miniso, Tuhu, Huazhu Group, and Proya [6].