房地产行业2024年9月70个大中城市房价数据点评：70城房价环比跌幅持平，一线城市跌幅扩大

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperforming the Market" [13] Core Insights - In September 2024, the average new home price in 70 major cities decreased by 0.7% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.9%, indicating a continued downward trend in housing prices [1][5] - The decline in new home prices has persisted for 16 months, and second-hand home prices have been declining for 17 months, surpassing the previous downturn period in 2014 [1][5] - The report suggests that the current price decline may continue for some time, with a potential narrowing of the decline later in the year, but a quick rebound similar to 2014 is unlikely [1][5] - The number of cities experiencing a decline in new home prices in September 2024 was 66, with an average decline of 0.76%, while all cities saw a decrease in second-hand home prices, averaging a decline of 0.93% [1][5] Summary by Sections New Home Prices - In September 2024, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.5%, with Beijing down 0.7%, Guangzhou down 0.9%, and Shenzhen down 1.0% [1][5] - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 1.2%, with Beijing down 1.3% and Guangzhou down 1.1% [1][5] Second-Hand Home Prices - Second-tier cities saw new home prices decline by 0.7%, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.9%, with notable declines in cities like Hohhot and Nanjing [1][5] - Third-tier cities experienced a 0.7% decline in new home prices and a 0.9% decline in second-hand home prices, with significant drops in cities such as Wenzhou and Luoyang [1][5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines for investment: 1. Stocks expected to rebound post-policy easing, such as Vanke A and Longfor Group 2. Stocks with strong policy support targeting core cities, including Greentown China and China Merchants Shekou [1][5]