9月经济数据点评：短期扰动减弱，积极变化显现

Economic Overview - China's GDP growth in Q3 2024 was 4.6% year-on-year, matching expectations but slightly down from 4.7% in Q2[1] - The cumulative GDP growth for the first three quarters was 4.8%, indicating a need for Q4 growth of approximately 5.4% to meet the annual target of around 5%[5] Industrial Production - In September, the industrial added value increased by 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 4.6% and rebounding from 4.5% in August[7] - The month-on-month growth for industrial production was 0.59%, reflecting a seasonal recovery after disruptions in July and August due to extreme weather[9] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods rose by 3.2% year-on-year in September, surpassing the expected 2.3% and up from 2.1% in August[11] - The growth in retail sales was significantly driven by policies promoting consumption, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors, which saw substantial increases[14] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.4% year-on-year in the first nine months, consistent with market expectations[16] - Manufacturing investment surged by 9.7% year-on-year in September, continuing to be a key driver of overall investment growth[20] Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate decreased to 5.1% in September, down from 5.3% in August, reflecting seasonal trends post-graduation[28] - Despite the overall stability in employment, specific groups, such as recent graduates, continue to face significant job market pressures[28]