摩根士丹利：中国：为何对实施有力的财政宽松政策有所迟疑？

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Views - The primary economic challenge is the debt-deflation cycle, with deflationary pressures driven by real estate sector adjustments and excessive investment policies [8] - To break the debt-deflation cycle, a RMB 10 trillion fiscal stimulus package targeting consumption and real estate inventory clearance is deemed necessary [4] - Policymakers are hesitant to implement forceful fiscal easing due to high public debt levels (102% of GDP) and declining revenues [10][13] - Short-term fiscal measures are expected to be limited, but strong fiscal easing could be triggered if social dynamics weaken significantly [4] Fiscal Policy Analysis - China's public debt-to-GDP ratio has risen sharply from 73% in 2019 to 102% in Q2 2024, the largest increase among major economies [10][13] - Government revenue has declined from 22.4% of GDP pre-pandemic to 18.1%, with tax revenue falling from 17% to 13.5% of GDP [14][16] - Land sales revenue has contracted by 1.9 percentage points of GDP since Q1 2021, significantly impacting local government spending capacity [14] Policy Preferences - Policymakers continue to favor investment over consumption, focusing on manufacturing and infrastructure to fill the demand gap left by real estate [20] - This investment-driven approach risks exacerbating overcapacity, deflation, and debt-to-GDP ratio increases [20] - The report suggests a shift towards consumption stimulus through social security spending, trade-in programs, and inventory clearance would be more effective [33] Potential Scenarios 1) Status Quo (4.5-5% GDP growth target, investment-focused): Continued deflation, accelerating debt-to-GDP ratio, worsening corporate returns [27][34] 2) Growth Slowdown (1-2% GDP growth): Milder deflation than Scenario 1, slower debt growth, but faster social stability deterioration [28][34] 3) Consumption-Driven (4-4.5% GDP growth): Moderate inflation recovery, stabilized debt ratio, improved corporate returns and social stability [33][34] Fiscal Stimulus Outlook - A RMB 1-2 trillion supplementary budget is expected, with only RMB 1 trillion (0.8% of GDP) for direct demand stimulus [23] - The ideal stimulus package would require RMB 6-7 trillion for social welfare spending and RMB 3-4 trillion for real estate inventory clearance [23]