摩根士丹利：数据中心 – 3Q24 预览_预计又一个稳健的季度

Investment Rating - The industry view for Communications Infrastructure in North America is rated as In-Line [3]. Core Insights - Data centers are expected to report solid bookings for Q3 2024, driven by strong demand from AI [3]. - Digital Realty (DLR) has outperformed Equinix (EQIX) year-to-date, with DLR up 19% compared to EQIX's 8%, while the sector lags behind the S&P 500's 23% increase [3]. - Data centers currently trade at approximately 25x NTM AFFO, representing a 25% premium to towers and a 15% premium to the REITs sector [3]. - CIO survey indicates a modest acceleration in IT budget growth expectations for 2025, with a forecast of 3.6% growth, up from 3.4% in 2024 [3][6]. - The demand for AI and cloud optimization continues to drive spending, with a projected 52% year-over-year growth in cloud capex for 2024 [6][22]. Summary by Sections Data Center Performance - DLR will report earnings on October 24, followed by EQIX on October 30 [3]. - The relative valuation gap between data centers and towers has slightly tightened recently [3]. - DLR's leverage has improved, with a current ratio of 5.3x, down from over 7x in early 2023 [8]. Growth Expectations - The 3Q24 CIO survey suggests that 41% of CIOs expect IT spending to increase as a percentage of total revenue over the next three years [22]. - Generative AI continues to be a priority for CIOs, influencing IT investment decisions [6][22]. Company-Specific Insights - For Equinix, focus will be on the $15 billion joint venture announced on October 1, 2024, and its implications for future growth [9][13]. - DLR's recent asset sales and liquidity improvements are key areas of interest, with ongoing efforts to reduce leverage [8][9]. Market Trends - The overall environment for M&A remains unattractive due to the disconnect between public and private multiples [13]. - Pricing trends and churn levels are critical metrics to monitor, with churn expected to moderate in the second half of 2024 [9][13].