摩根士丹利：机械_美国建筑设备经销商调查 - 3Q24 版

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is classified as "In-Line" [4]. Core Insights - The US construction equipment industry is facing increasingly challenging fundamentals, with deteriorating dealer sentiment and expectations for sales and pricing [3][4]. - The survey indicates a significant decline in near-term sales expectations among dealers, with only 60% expecting higher sales over the next twelve months, the lowest level since 2019 [4][18]. - Inventory levels are mixed, with 54% of dealers reporting excess new inventory, indicating a potential need for de-stocking in the near term [4][26]. - Pricing expectations have also declined, with only 48% of dealers expecting prices to increase over the next twelve months, the lowest since Q2 2020 [4][38]. Summary by Sections Dealer Sentiment - Current sales sentiment has decreased, with 62% of dealers reporting higher year-over-year sales, down from 70% in June 2024 [4][16]. - Expectations for sales over the next twelve months have dropped significantly, with only 60% of dealers anticipating higher sales, down from 84% in June 2024 [4][18]. Inventory Levels - New inventory levels have worsened, with 54% of dealers citing excess inventory, up from 40% in June 2024 [4][26]. - Used inventory conditions have also softened, with 62% of dealers reporting higher than needed used inventory, compared to 25% in June 2024 [4][30]. Pricing Expectations - NTM pricing expectations have declined, with only 48% of dealers expecting prices to rise, down from 56% in the previous quarter [4][38]. - CAT dealers remain more optimistic about pricing, with 65% expecting higher prices compared to 48% of total dealers [4][63]. Lead Times and Supply Chain - Lead times have deteriorated, with only 20% of dealers reporting shorter lead times, down from 26% in the previous quarter [4][36]. - Supply chain issues continue to impact dealer sentiment, with 42% of dealers indicating that their sales would be significantly higher with more on-time deliveries and inventory [4][59]. Demand Outlook - Product categories such as excavators, wheel loaders, and loader backhoes are expected to have the strongest demand over the next six months, while off-highway trucks and dozers are anticipated to have weaker demand [4][87].